Thought Series

2020: Last Quarter Wrap
2020 has come to a close. To all our readers we hope you have crossed it without any long-lasting scars. While we begin 2021 with renewed optimism hoping 2021 puts the pandemic behind us, there is also a need for abundant caution. Ballooning budget deficits, inflationary pressures and market corrections...
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2020: Third Quarter Wrap
Starting with the U.S.: Low interest rates for the next 2-3 years. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its meeting in September signalled that the Fed will keep key interest rates near zero through 2023 – an addition of one more year to the previous guidance. The Fed will...
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2020: Second Quarter Wrap
Starting with the U.S.: The Fed wants to (and is) keeping control… The last quarter was all about the Fed QE program, targeted to soften the impact of economic disruptions and to ensure US business would have sufficient liquidity. Closer to the end of the quarter the results started coming...
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2020: First Quarter Wrap
Starting with the U.S.: A recession is on the cards… It is amazing how quickly the outlook has changed – the global economy is struggling and central banks are doing all they can to soften the landing. In times when the whole world is impacted, economies with a strong (pre-event)...
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2019: Fourth Quarter Year End Wrap
Starting with the U.S. - The Goldilocks Year... Our 2018 year-end macro wrap hinted at the U.S. entering a “Goldilocks period for equities” i.e. an environment of low inflation and low interest rates. U.S. equities did not disappoint – if anything, 2019 was a year of stellar performance. Consumers account...
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2019: Third Quarter Wrap
It has been 3 months since our “2019: Second Quarter Wrap”. Now that the 3rd Quarter is over, let’s see where we are: Starting with the U.S.: The yield curve may not be the best predictor of a recession... The Fed’s trillion-dollar balance sheet has put downward pressure on the...
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2019: Second Quarter Wrap
It has been 3 months since our “Welcome 2019: First Quarter Wrap”. Now that the 2nd Quarter is over, let’s see where we are: Starting with the U.S.: A mix bag of economic and corporate data Research indicates that the U.S. economy will grow 2.7% this year (1.7% to 20%...
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